温家宝：今年中国经济预期增长8%

中国总理温家宝昨日承诺今年经济将增长8%，政府支出将达到创纪录的水平，不过他没有提到许多投资者期待的新经济刺激方案。

在向中国的议会——全国人民代表大会(NPC)所作的两小时“工作报告”中，温家宝表示，全球金融危机正不断加剧，但8%的增长目标仍是现实的。

他表示：“全球金融危机继续蔓延和恶化。国际市场需求持续萎缩；全球通缩趋势明显；贸易保护主义抬头。”

但他补充称：“只要政策对头，措施得当，落实有力，就有可能实现这一目标。”

周三，由于中国官员暗示温家宝将在报告中提出新的刺激方案，全球金融市场出现上扬。然而，在去年11月份公布的4万亿元人民币（合5850亿美元）“投资计划”之外，温家宝没有宣布额外的举措。

他没有提供额外的细节，帮助阐明有多少投资是真正的新增支出，以及这些资金将如何使用。

温家宝表示，今年的预算赤字为9500亿元人民币，相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的近3%——创中国近些年来的最高纪录，但与全球各国目前正考虑的一些财政方案相比仍较为温和。

实际上，尽管人们对于中国2009年庞大的财政计划谈了很多，但政府总体支出21%的增幅，低于去年的25.4%。

尽管没有出台新的投资计划，但由于温家宝的预期安抚了投资者，上海股市昨日再度上涨1%。野村国际(Nomura International)的孙明春表示：“我们看到温家宝报告中的坚定语气，政府决心并能够应对危机。”

经济学家称，中国相对较低的负债水平意味着，如果没有经济复苏的迹象，政府可以在年内加大财政刺激力度。

财政部研究员贾康也暗示可能会继续出台措施。他对记者表示：“如果第二季度经济形势持续疲弱，中国可能不得不进一步扩大财政赤字。”

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao yesterday promised to deliver 8 per cent economic growth and record government spending this year, though he failed to outline the new stimulus package many investors had been expecting.

In a two-hour speech outlining his “work report” to the National People's Congress, China's parliament, Mr Wen said the global financial crisis was deepening but the goal of 8 per cent growth was still realistic.

“The global financial crisis continues to spread and get worse. Demand continues to shrink on international markets; the trend toward global deflation is obvious; and trade protectionism is resurging,” he said.

But “as long as we adopt the right policies and appropriate measures and implement them effectively, we will be able to achieve this target”, he added.

Global financial markets rose on Wednesday after Chinese officials indicated Mr Wen would introduce a new stimulus plan in his speech. However, Mr Wen did not announce additional measures beyond the Rmb4,000bn ($585bn) “investment plan” unveiled in November.

He provided few extra details to help clarify how much of that investment would be genuinely new spending, and where the money would be allocated.

Mr Wen said China would run a budget deficit this year of Rmb950bn, equivalent to nearly 3 per cent of GDP – a record in recent times for China, but modest compared to some of the fiscal packages currently being considered around the world.

Indeed, for all the talk about China's big fiscal plans for 2009, the 21 per cent increase in total government expenditures for this year is slower than the 25.4 per cent rise last year.

In spite of the lack of new investment plans, the Shanghai market rose another 1 per cent yesterday as investors were assured by Mr Wen's forecast. “We see a firm tone to Mr Wen's speech that the government is determined and able to cope with the crisis,” said Sun Mingchun at Nomura International.

Economists said China's relatively low debt levels meant the government could expand its fiscal stimulus over the course of the year if there were few signs of recovery.

Jia Kang, researcher at the Ministry of Finance, also hinted at measures to come. “China may have to widen the fiscal deficit further if the economic situation continues to be weak in the second quarter,” he told reporters.